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發表於 2011-6-8 17:04:42
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man198 發表於 2011-6-8 16:32
閣下係以整座大廈或者屋苑嚟睇, 當然係 heterogeneous, 但我所指係每個個別物業以不同價格賣比港 ...
That is a very interesting economics question. Please allow me to discuss in English.
From an pure economics point of view, yes, you are correct that all Hong Kong property holders are winner under this policy. Then we should further look into the investors side and the owners side.
From an owner perspective, if I know I can sell 3 times of price of my property to non-residents(NR), I would want to sell it to NR only. Permanent residents(PR) would face supply shortage issue. They would have to bid up the price as well if they want to compete with NR buyers for the same flat. Since PR is bidding up the price close to NR, the price will jump to NR level IF the NR demand is high and can absorb the supply (which is not very likely.)
From an investor perspective, funding would shrink to 1/3 of its purchase power in term of buying HK property. I would only purchase the highest quality real estate, which these estates are on the hands of the richest people in HK already. NR buyers will not pay 12 millions dollar for a 500 sq ft flat in shamshuipo. Furthermore, if residential price become so high by this policy, they might invest in office building, commercial building, car parking space, warehouse, or raw land to avoid this price discrimination yet still enjoying the HK estate market.
From an international investors point of view, I probably invest in other market such as Taiwan, Vietnam or other places that do not have this price control to generate reasonable return for my investment.
這是一個非常有趣的經濟問題。請允許我用英語討論。
從純經濟學的角度來看，是的，你是正確的，香港所有的物業持有人都會得益。我們要進一步研究投資者與業主的角度。
從業主的角度來看，如果我知道我可以賣3倍的價格給非居民，那我只會希賣給他們。永久居民將面臨供應短缺的問題。他們將不得不抬高價格，如果他們想與非居民買家競爭同一個單位。價格會上升至新水平（這是不太可能的。）
從投資者的角度來看，購買力將縮小到1/ 3的。那我只想購買最優質的房地產，這房產些都已在最富有的人手中了。非居民買家將不會支付1200萬買500呎單位深水埗的位。此外，如果住宅價格變得如此之高，他們可能會投資於辦公樓，商業建築，汽車停車位，倉庫或田地來避免這種價格歧視，但仍享受著香港房地產市場。
從國際投資者的角度來看，我可能投資於其他市場如台灣，越南或其他沒有價格控制的地方。 |
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在線雷達
歸根究柢在於流動性過多, 內地又因人民幣升值, 呀爺又要照顧廣大人民推出 X 萬億托住個經濟
結果同黨政軍有關係的都攞住幾千萬甚至幾億來港掃貨
坊間傳要限制內地人嚟買樓
應該採用經濟學上所講的 價格分歧 (Price Discrimination)
逢非三粒星居民買樓, 一律須付現樓價三倍 (定價以港人購買力決定)
到時港人將自己啲貨質哂比大陸佬, 揸住茄殊買一間自住, 一間收租, 一間金屋藏嬌你都咪話唔爽
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收嗲鳥
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