曾淵滄專欄：航運股發盈警意料中事

dunk397

上周五（ 7月 24日）早上，恒生指數一開市就突破 20000點，不久，無綫電視《東張西望》節目打電話來，說要訪問我。
《東張西望》是娛樂節目，訪問對象一般是藝人，為甚麼會想到訪問我？
過去幾年，每逢時事政治節目、娛樂節目來找我訪問時，實際上都代表着一個現象：股市出現極端樂觀或悲觀情緒。去年年底，時事政治節目《時事追擊》來訪問我，那是甚麼時候？那個時候正好是金融海嘯大爆發的時候，那時候是許多人認為是世界末日的時候，不過，我在節目中就盡量講樂觀的話，安撫人心。 2007年股市泡沫將爆破前不久，商業電台的時事政治節目《在晴朗的一天出發》也訪問我，當時我很直接地在節目中說：你們這類節目來訪問我談股市使我感到不妙了，這是股民已經瘋狂的表現。
最後，我沒有上《東張西望》的節目。
為甚麼？因為節目負責人希望我能回答：「後市怎麼看？」的問題，我給她的答案有點出乎她意料之外，我說我不懂得看。
是的，我不是經常懂得觀察、猜測後市的人，我絕對沒有能力每天預測恒指上升時上望多少點，下跌時支持位在那裏。


後市升跌　尚需觀察
放大圖片


7月 15日，我認定這一輪的短期上升浪將是一個大突破，會一舉升破四叔的目標 20000點。如今目標到達了，但是，我的能力也到此為止，升破 20000之後會如何？站不站得穩？還是再向上衝？破 22000點？ 23000點？暫時我仍然沒有靈感，得再觀察觀察市場的氣氛。
去年我開始學習各種各樣的短期分析方法，看到有些人以「資金流向」來分析、預測後市，這是最莫名其妙的理論，香港是一個資金來去完全自由的地方，任何人都可以在一秒之內將數以億元計的錢滙入滙出，誰能猜中資金去向？資金流入，股市升；資金流出，股市跌，這是「阿媽是女人」的分析。
勝獅貨櫃（ 716）與天津港發展（ 3382）發盈警，這是意料中事，我已經說過，航運業仍未復蘇，近來推介航運股只不過是憧憬未來的復蘇，因此大家要有足夠的心理準備，未來一段日子，其他航運股也會陸續發盈警，發出盈利下降、甚至虧損的業績。
「保八」已在望，但最近中央會議，由國家主席胡錦濤親自拍板的中央政策 12字真言，第一句仍然是「保增長」，這說明中央明白，西方國家的經濟仍遠遠未復蘇。
曾淵滄

kor8

航運股 has been in dump since 2008.  The company I work for use about 5000 of those things a year.  Base on user's perspective (OK! just my own perspective ).  Those arrogant 123456789 were the one shot themselves.

1.  Back in early and mid 2000s, when business were booming, every shippers, except Evergreen which got realllll lucky for the wrong reason (not the one on newspaper), out there were ordering bigger ETU ships.  Well, just like jets, those were not made overnight.  Delivery can take up few years.  So, now, we are seeing those gigantic ships been delivered or soon to be delivered and it just way too much supply.  A simple supplies > demands by landslide.

2.  The prices of moving drop ~35% in every routes since last year because the oversupplies.  It wasn't that bad if it was not under the even line.  In easier term, the more they move, the more money they lose.  But what those arrogant 123456789 do?  Instead trying to protect themselves financially, ie. cutting back, they all went out and try to grab market shares.  So they all out there try to ship as much as possible, while losing money, and hoping competitors falter first .

3.  Move it up to today, most of them are in dump hole, out of money to operate and can't secure $ to pay for the ship constructions.

So what will be next for those 123456789?  1.  They all try to scrap older and smaller ship asap to equalize supply and demand (sounds funny huh? ).  2. They all try to consolidate routes and cut back on moving (another way to equalize s and d).  3. On their knee and pray the new GRI will work (don't look very hopeful, they might get a month out of it).  4. Their shareholders and GOVN'T (don't forgot this one ) will fund more $$$.
And at the end, it it just too late and a dollar to short in the game.  We might end up only 12345 (not sure that is really good for the game).....of course, unless we see one of those govn't save the banks thing happen again worldwide (can we open a topic and debate whether it really is good or not? ).
Hey, look the bright side, my boss just made $13xx X 1200 in the last 2-3 months.