BeiJing rain storm

ken2005dec

lost of insurance claims coming

china insurance company big lost

initialcon

回復 ken2005dec #1 的帖子

No doubt!  If you think beijing is worst, look at the central china.

ken2005dec

回復 initialcon #2 的帖子

agreed

the China Insurance companies stock market dropped

so heavy in today

initialcon

ken2005dec 發表於 2012-7-23 13:21

                               
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回復 initialcon #2 的帖子

agreed

I guess there are more bad news to come (about china financial/monetary).

ken2005dec

回復 initialcon #4 的帖子

agree
the PMI are not real in CHina

many people refer to the HSBC PMI index

the export is bad and now the internal is slowing down

initialcon

ken2005dec 發表於 2012-7-23 13:31

                               
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回復 initialcon #4 的帖子

agree

The term "slowing down" might not be the best description. "Hard landed" might be more appropriate.

As you see, either the central bank issues more M2 or not, it wouldn't save the economy. In other words, they have used the WRONG method in 2009.

ken2005dec

回復 initialcon #6 的帖子

M@ is not the best way

because you can see the commercial can have cheap money but not the real people

worry that the over spent of local government and the money waste on over production but no money goes to workers

initialcon

回復 ken2005dec #7 的帖子

In 2009, china issued 4000billion in M2 to boost the economy; however, only the state run companies got the fund. They have invested the fund into the stock market and real estate instead of the core business.

So we saw a big leap in the stock market and the ever crazy real estate price. Now this bubble has already bursted and you KNOW the RESULT.

However, if the china government just subsidize the state run companies in 2009, the economy nowadays wouldn't be like this.

ken2005dec

回復 initialcon #8 的帖子

I have the same thoughts

how can china increase productivity and have the worker gain the benifits?

initialcon

回復 ken2005dec #9 的帖子

PART I

There are(were) couple of ways to do that.

(1) Depreciate RMB against USD, this promotes international income;
(2) Stop raising the minimum wage;
(3) Modernize the agriculture sector to become a major food exporter;
(4) Give up on the aution policy of land;
(5) Take out the TOLL policy from its highway network;
(6) Tighten the subsidy on all state-run companies;
(7) Tighten local government expenditures.

ken2005dec

回復 initialcon #10 的帖子

agree

how about the policy or policies on improve the local productivity or value?


That improve the real people and workers

initialcon

ken2005dec 發表於 2012-7-23 14:44

                               
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回復 initialcon #10 的帖子

agree

Wait for my PART II  ; hope you would enjoy reading it!

I am typing it up real hard!

initialcon

initialcon 發表於 2012-7-23 14:49

                               
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Wait for my PART II  ; hope you would enjoy reading it!

I am typing it up real hard!

PART II

Let's elaborate on each factors from PART I.

(1) Depreciating RMB is a sure way to ensure ORDERS from other countries; as china continues to provide the best bargain in manufacturing sector. Therfore, the 0.7 billion labor force wouldn't be out of job.

(2) Raising the minimum wage by 20% every six months is definitely a WORLD'S RECORD. However, it would further make the small/medium firms harder to survive in the already intense competition. On the other hand, min. wage drives up the inflation to an unacceptable level like now.

(3) China's weakest sector is the agriculture. China should train/give automatic machineries to farmers free of charge; so there is no need to subsidize and they still make more money by selling more from its efficient output. Of course, a relatively stable food price is the result too.

(4) The supply of land is never a problem in china. The high price tag of land is definitely the prime suspect of a high inflation!

(5) At the moment the cost of transportation is unreasonably high comparing with the average income of labor. A TOLL-free highway network would bring the price (on both foods/goods) down.

(6) China should not prioritize the state-run companies at this high level. Just all the state-runs added up won't create job opportunities for its 0.7 billion work force. Furthermore, state-runs are always over produce, this surplus production disrupts the major employers (which are small/medium firms).

(7) Local government shouldn't build a palace like administrative/police buildings. Instead, they should build more hospital/schools. As long as the labors are happy with their lives and see the future of their kids. No doubt a TRUE prosperous china isn't too far away.

Wait for my PART III.